March 2026 Building Materials Industry Prosperity Index (MPI)—Steady Recovery of the Building Materials Industry in March

I. March Construction Materials Industry Prosperity Index

In March 2026, the construction materials industry prosperity index stood at 129.8 points, above the threshold and in the expansionary range, marking a significant rebound from January and February and outpacing the year-earlier level.

Affected by seasonal factors such as weather conditions and the Spring Festival holiday, the building materials market enters its traditional off-season in January and February, with downstream demand and building materials production both slowing in tandem, causing the building materials industry’s prosperity index to fall below the threshold. Following the Spring Festival, construction and related manufacturing sectors gradually resume operations, prompting building materials firms to accelerate the resumption of production and business, thereby leading to a steady recovery in industry sentiment. Given that this year’s Spring Festival fell in mid-to-late February, the resulting shift in the timing of the holiday resulted in a higher building materials industry prosperity index in March compared with the same month last year.

Figure: Monthly Business Sentiment Index for the Building Materials Industry

On the supply side, in March the price index for the building materials industry remained below the threshold, while the production index rose above it. Specifically, the building materials price index stood at 99.6, up 0.5 points from the previous month; the building materials production index reached 130.7, a rise of 46.0 points from the prior month, returning to the expansionary range. Overall, prices for building-material products continued to fluctuate at low levels, while production activity among building-material firms picked up markedly compared with January and February, thereby boosting the overall business climate in the building-materials industry.

On the demand side, the building-materials investment-demand index, the industrial-consumption index, and the international-trade index all remain above the threshold, indicating a favorable business climate. Specifically, the building-materials investment-demand index stands at 131.8 points, up 46.3 points from the previous month and above the threshold; it is also 4.8 points higher than the same period last year, signaling a fairly pronounced rebound in the construction market. The industrial-consumption index for building-material products is 126.9 points, an increase of 44.4 points from the previous month, reflecting a recovery in demand from manufacturing sectors that use building-material products—though the pace of this recovery is slightly slower than in the same period last year. Meanwhile, the international-trade index for building materials is 114.9 points, up 55.1 points from the previous month, as trade in building-material commodities has picked up rapidly following the Spring Festival. Overall, in March the demand for building materials has shown a generally strong recovery after the holiday, thereby boosting the overall business climate in the building-materials industry.

II. Analysis of Factors Influencing MPI and Early Warning

Overall, demand in the building-materials market is on a recovery trajectory. Supported by seasonal tailwinds such as the end of the Spring Festival holiday and improving weather conditions, as well as the continued implementation and spillover effects of national policies aimed at stabilizing growth, construction projects in many regions have accelerated their start-up pace. In January–February, infrastructure investment increased by 11.4% year on year, marking a substantial rebound from the same period last year and providing fundamental support for demand in the building-materials market. Demand across related manufacturing sectors has been mixed: output of high-speed train sets, electronic products, and household appliances has risen year on year, while output of automobiles and photovoltaic cells has declined; nonetheless, overall demand for associated building materials has remained robust.

Prices for construction materials declined slightly. Since the beginning of this year, ex-factory prices for construction materials have continued to fluctuate at low levels. In March, ex-factory prices fell by 0.4% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing. Among the sub-sectors of construction materials, six—thermal insulation materials, construction stone, mineral fibers and composite materials, architectural sanitary ceramics, and clay and sandstone mining—saw slight month-on-month price increases; meanwhile, four—lime and gypsum, clay and sandstone mining, construction stone, and mineral fibers and products—recorded year-on-year growth in ex-factory prices.

The operating environment for the industry is expected to remain stable. With the government’s policy of moderately front-loading infrastructure investment and the issuance of additional special local-government bonds—measures designed to strengthen macroeconomic regulation—the launch or resumption of key projects across regions is likely to occur earlier after the Lunar New Year, thereby further supporting the recovery of market demand in the building-materials sector. Nevertheless, building-materials firms must continue to align their production plans with actual changes in market demand to ensure a dynamically balanced supply–demand relationship. Meanwhile, prices for coal, natural gas, fuel oil, and other commodities showed signs of rising in March, while logistics costs—covering road, sea, and water transport—remained broadly stable, resulting in differentiated impacts across the various sub-sectors of the building-materials industry.

Note:

1. The Building Materials Industry Prosperity Index (MPI) primarily monitors the operational trends of the building materials industry and serves as a robust tool for forecasting and early warning. An MPI reading above 100 indicates that the industry is in a prosperous phase, while an MPI reading below 100 suggests that the industry is in a non-prosperous phase.

2. The Building Materials Industry Prosperity Index (MPI) assesses the operational trends of the building materials industry from both the supply and demand sides. On the supply side, it comprises the Price Index and the Production Index; on the demand side, it is segmented into the Investment Demand Index, the Industrial Consumption Index, and the Building Materials International Trade Index, based on the actual impact of each demand sector on the building materials industry.

3. The Price Index for the Building Materials Industry reflects the trend in ex-factory prices in the industry. Ex-factory prices do not include costs incurred during the distribution of building-material products, product profits, or taxes and levies. Ex-factory prices differ from market prices; their movements influence each other, with a time lag, and it is possible that their trends may diverge over a given period.

4. The Index of Industrial Production in the Building Materials Sector reflects the trend of changes in production within the sector and does not incorporate price fluctuations.

5. The Investment Demand Index reflects the trend of changes in market demand for investment related to construction materials.

6. The industrial consumption index reflects the trend in industrial demand for construction materials. Industrial consumption encompasses both inter-industry consumption within the construction-materials industry and downstream industries’ demand for construction-materials products.

7. The International Trade Index for Construction Materials reflects trends in international trade in construction materials and is primarily composed of export indices for sectors such as architectural sanitary ceramics, architectural technical glass, construction stone, glass fiber and composite materials, and non-metallic minerals.